Future of Baku-Tbilisi-Ceyhan Pipeline

Future of Baku-Tbilisi-Ceyhan Pipeline

Postby Marat » Sun Aug 24, 2008 4:34 pm

What is your attitude to future of Baku-Tbilisi-Ceyhan Pipeline (official website http://www.bp.com/sectiongenericarticle.do?categoryId=9006669&contentId=7015093; map: Image)?

Pipeline goes through crisis regions as Azerbajdzan, Georgia and Turkey. Azerbajdzan has problems with Armenians who established breakaway Republic of Nagorno-Karabakh and apart from Nagorno-Karabakh Armenian troops control 7 districts of Azerbajdzan. In South part of Georgia lives big minority of Armenians (let you look: Image); Georgia is poor and crash country; there are two breakway republics and auntonomous republic of Ajaria (and it is occupied by Russian troops currently). Turkey´s problem are Kurdish, who informed Turkish government that pipeline will be object of their attacks.
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Re: Future of Baku-Tbilisi-Ceyhan Pipeline

Postby bruce » Fri Aug 29, 2008 12:21 am

Marat wrote:What is your attitude to future of Baku-Tbilisi-Ceyhan Pipeline?

Really depends on situation in Georgia and the rest of South Caucasus. In there will be an instability, we can forget about using the pipeline.
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Re: Future of Baku-Tbilisi-Ceyhan Pipeline

Postby Marat » Sat Aug 30, 2008 6:49 pm

bruce wrote:Really depends on situation in Georgia and the rest of South Caucasus. In there will be an instability, we can forget about using the pipeline.


Russia would like to control post soviet space. If it fails it will destabilise region. I think that Russia is destabilizing Georgia currently (for examle by recognition of Abkhaziya and South Ossetia). Vladimir V. Putin in NATO Bucharest summit said to George W. Bush (citation): You see, George, Ukraine is not even the state at all! What is Ukraine? Some part of its territory is the Eastern Europe, some its part, the greater part, is our gift!” He gave a clear hint if Ukraine joins the NATO, this state will cease to exist” And Russia has means to do it.

BTW.: Russia and Turkey contracted to built pipeline from Russia (perhaps) to Israel. Do you know anything about this project?
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Re: Future of Baku-Tbilisi-Ceyhan Pipeline

Postby bruce » Sun Aug 31, 2008 2:22 am

Marat wrote:Do you know anything about this project?

Do you mean this project?
The project includes construction of five pipelines for water supply, natural gas and oil, as well as the electrical and optical cables from the Turkish coast of the Mediterranean Sea to Israel.
http://mnenia.zahav.ru/ArticlePage.aspx?articleID=7591&categoryID=-1
Gas pipeline
In addition to their primary destination - the supply of gas to Turkey - "Blue Stream" is a gas transportation corridor ready for new projects, one of which could become the "Blue Stream-2", which is currently under review.
"Blue Stream-2" may give an opportunity to supply the Middle East, Israel and other countries.
http://www.gazprom.ru/articles/article8606.shtml
Moscow's proposal to connect Israel to the Russian gas pipe was first discussed in middle 90ies, but has gained urgency only after running route under the Black Sea from Russia to Turkey gas pipeline "Blue Stream". Projected capacity of the pipeline - 16 billion cubic meters a year, there were plans to increase capacity to pipe 32 billion cubic meters a year, as well as for the construction of branches in Italy and Israel. Power of the Israeli branch to establish in the first phase from 2 to 5 billion cubic meters a year. Now pipe "Blue Stream" reaches Ankara. For transporting gas to Israel planned to build a branch to land Turkish port of Ceyhan and further - 610 kilometers along the bottom of the Mediterranean Sea to connect with the construction of Israeli gas distribution system.
Preparations for the project already well under way. "During the February visit to Moscow Minister Ben-Eliezer and the head of Gazprom Alexei Miller reached an" agreement of understanding the principles "under which Israel would buy natural gas from Gazprom on a long-term basis. The contract could be awarded for up to 30 years ", - told the correspondent of" Expert "Director General of the Ministry of National Infrastructures Israel Hezi Kugler. According to him, "Gazprom" is already preparing a feasibility study project. A similar document will present and the Israeli side. It is expected that work will be completed as early as this year. "We must also conclude a" memorandum of understanding. " On this issue, I maintain contacts with Deputy Miller Mr Medvedev. Finally, we may sign an intergovernmental agreement on deliveries of natural gas, a similar agreement with Egypt. The Israeli Governmenthe project has already drafted such a document and will soon be sent to Russian authorities ", - says Mr. Kugler.
http://www.expert.ru/printissues/expert/2007/28/rossiysko_izrailskaya_energetika/
Oil pipeline
The Israeli side is considering laying a gas pipeline in the context of creating "infrastructure corridor" from Turkey to Israel. The Israelis expect to connect to the pipeline Baku-Tbilisi-Ceyhan (BTC) oil pipeline from old Eilat to Ashkelon, built jointly with Iran at the end of 60ies.As said Mora Amita, the pipeline is still formally jointly owned by Tehran and Jerusalem, and this problem is a subject of proceedings in international arbitration. Currently, Eilat-Ashkelon pipeline is able to work in reverse mode and transfer oil from the port of Ashkelon on the Mediterranean Sea to the port of Eilat on the Red Sea. Its capacity, according to Mr. Shahora, is 20 million tons of oil a year, but if necessary, transfer volumes may rise to 40 and even up to 60 million tons. At present, on the pipeline are sporadic deliveries of small quantities of oil, what is incomparable with it´s capacity.
http://www.expert.ru/printissues/expert/2007/28/rossiysko_izrailskaya_energetika/
Feasibility studies project pipeline will be ready within 10 months, argues Energy Minister Hilmi Guler of Turkey. He also said that the pipeline design capacity reaches 40 million tons annually. According to Israeli Minister, Azerbaijan, which seeks to supply oil to Eastern markets, has already expressed interest in the project.
http://mnenia.zahav.ru/ArticlePage.aspx?articleID=7591&categoryID=-1
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Re: Future of Baku-Tbilisi-Ceyhan Pipeline

Postby Marat » Mon Sep 01, 2008 2:53 pm

Thank you very much. I was interested in this project. Thank you very much for further information. I think that It will be alternative to BTC Pipeline.

As far as I remember Kazakhstan would like to transport oil/gas via Russian pipeline to Russian port Novorossijsk. Prior this it prefered South Caucasus however durring current conflict in South Caucasus it decided to use Russian transport system.

По словам израильского министра, Азербайджан, который стремится поставлять нефть на восточные рынки, уже выразил интерес в отношении данного проекта.


There was no any possiblity for Azerbaijan. Post-soviet republic are depend on Russian transport system (pipelines) - they do not have enough money for building own transport system. There are no enough gas industry experts ( like in Tukmenistan).
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